The Resilience Report: Reclaiming the 25,550 Floor
The trading week ending February 20, 2026, was defined by a classic “tug-of-war” between global geopolitical anxiety and robust domestic fundamentals. Despite a mid-week crash that rattled retail investors, the Nifty 50 staged a 116.90-point recovery on Friday to close at 25,571.25, proving that the structural bull case for India remains intact.
1. The “Value” Shift: Why Metals and Infrastructure Led the Rebound
While the tech-heavy Nasdaq struggled with AI-valuation exhaustion, the Indian market saw a massive rotation into “Old Economy” value stocks.
| Top Gainer (Feb 20) | Last Price | % Change | The “Vetted” Reason |
| Hindalco | ₹934.75 | +3.21% | Global aluminum supply constraints and strong LME pricing. |
| NTPC | ₹372.80 | +2.64% | Power demand hit a seasonal peak; institutional buying in PSU energy. |
| Larsen & Toubro | ₹4,380.10 | +2.33% | Massive order book visibility for Q1 2026; leading the CAPEX cycle. |
2. Macro Catalyst: HSBC PMI Hits 3-Month High
The quiet driver behind Friday’s optimism was the HSBC Flash India Composite PMI, which jumped to 59.3 in February (up from 58.4).
- Manufacturing Strength: Factory production is expanding at its fastest rate since last November.
- Service Exports: International orders for Indian services rose at the steepest pace since August 2025.
- Inflation Warning: Input costs are hitting 15-month highs (metals/chemicals), which traders must watch for impact on Q4 margins.
3. Technical Outlook: Support & Resistance Levels
As we look toward the final week of February, the “Line in the Sand” is clearly drawn.
- Immediate Support: 25,400 – 25,300. As long as Nifty stays above the 200-day EMA (currently near 25,225), the long-term trend is Bullish.
- Major Resistance: 25,700 – 25,850. A decisive break above 25,700 is required to trigger a fresh run toward the 26,000 psychological barrier.
The Vetted Verdict
The “Buy the Dip” sentiment is active but selective. While the Nifty IT index (Infosys/Tech Mahindra) is facing headwinds, the Nifty Metal and Infrastructure indices are the clear alpha-generators for late February.